It’s not over just yet. Global commerce is still navigating through the troubled waters in between the end of recession and the beginning of recovery. True, conditions have brightened recently. Consistent positive news in the last few weeks has fanned hopes, and injected a slew of positive adjectives into daily economy-speak. But today’s growth pales in comparison to the huge declines the economy saw a year ago, and the business environment is still unpredictable.

Most now seem hopeful that we’ll get through these waters without a major incident. Time will tell. We still have a few months before the sailing gets smoother. Excesses created during the years of heady global growth are still being worked down, and key leading indicators of growth won’t be in balance until mid-year. And it will likely be late in the year before global growth gets to a true recovery pace.

This time period is critical, for a variety of reasons. In the coming weeks, the global financial sector will face a key test. During this time, the credit cycle is expected to peak. Defaults, which typically trail behind the peak of unemployment, are likely to crest in the first quarter of this year, a delicate moment for the already-stressed financial sector. Moreover, the sector will deal with the more protracted default cycle of the commercial real estate industry. Passing this test is critical to keeping the recovery on track.

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